Defending optimism.

Last year in technology has been painful. We haven’t been this downtrodden since 2008. So it pays to reflect on why we dream in the first place.

Silicon Valley is a hype machine and the skeptics aren’t wrong. From the Theranos scandal to Uber's $8.5 billion net loss in 2019, there have been plenty of high-profile failures (unless you are Jason C.). But here is the thing, pessimists are right about the wrong questions. Yes, most startups fail, but also, yes, when the hype front loads true innovation, it really pays to participate (not to mention, it’s fun).

The non believers balk when Silicon valley attracts the best talent (think of Elon’s top engineers) with insane amounts of cash ($7B was invested in self driving in 2020 (Pitchbook)). They roll their eyes and write opinion pieces (like this!) when a moonshot closes its doors. And most startups do.

But a pessimist’s validation is short lived and driven by anxiety, while folks who successfully support a changing world, build their identities in fullfillment. The dreamers, who get fired, because startups are hard, go on to the likes of OpenAI which rises like a phoenix from the ashes, sending shockwaves around the world.

Silicon Valley is a culture of entrepreneurial reinvention. The founder of Instacart had over 20 at bats, before his big break. Apoorva wasn’t ostracized. He was able to raise new capital, because the venture model allows for failure in search of winners to the power law (and he built enduring relationships).

Today Instacart is a behemoth (although with ratchets, from what I hear). Apple is coming out with a VR headset and ChatGPT is the best coding partner I’ve ever had.

The stock market will bounce back,, driven by productivity improvement from the names above. Growth investing ill follow and the seed market never disappeared. It took us 50 years to go from horse drive carriages to landing on the moon. I believe the time from theoretica. to practical innovatin is shrinking. Let’s see what the next 25 years brings.